As extreme precipitation events become more severe, it is becoming increasingly important to anticipate on-the-ground impacts with sufficient lead time for a meaningful response. We are working with the Santa Clara Valley Water District to provide the tools necessary to proactively respond to a storm’s forecast, rather than react to its impacts. By employing pattern recognition to create a “forecast handbook”, we are providing Valley Water with actionable information to support management strategies.
Since the Santa Clara Valley Water District serves a geographically complex area featuring coastal and inland mountains, numerous rivers and creeks, sensitive agricultural lands, and densely populated cities, it is critical to use the highest resolution climate model output to connect large-scale weather patterns with the impacts on rainfall and runoff. We are doing this by leveraging the downscaled climate model output which was produced and specifically vetted for use in California’s Fifth Climate Assessment. We are further informing our interpretation of this modeled hydrologic data by carefully assessing it with respect to our quality-controlled observations produced for the Historical Data Platform as well as Valley Water’s own network of observations.